DOW-UAP-D048, Department of the Air Force Report, 1996

Official Description

This report describes the Modeling of Unlikely Space-Booster Failures in Risk Calculations, documenting historical launch failure modes and recommending corrective actions to address them using novel modelling techniques.

Key Findings

• →The report develops optimum shaping constants (A and B) for the Mode-5 impact-density function used in RTI's DAMP risk-analysis program to model unlikely booster failures that can cause debris to impact far from the intended flight line.
• →Historical launch failure histories covering 1,186 flights of Atlas, Delta, Titan, and Thor vehicles are compiled and classified by failure-response mode and flight phase.
• →Recommended failure probabilities for Atlas, Delta, and Titan are derived empirically: Atlas 0.022 (phase 0-1), Delta 0.010 (phase 0-1), Titan 0.040 (phase 0-1).
• →Mode-4 failures (impacts near flight line) dominate launch-area risks, accounting for approximately 86% of failure responses for mature systems, while Mode-5 accounts for approximately 8%.
• →Real-world examples of Mode-5 failure responses are documented, including the 1991 Prospector (Joust) launch where a radical pitch-up maneuver due to aft-skirt structural failure caused the vehicle to deviate well away from the flight line.

Extracted Entities