What Are the Chances That We Are Visited by Aliens?

Scientists analyzed more than 100 UAP videos released by the Pentagon's PURSUE program and identified a new analytical challenge for researchers attempting to determine whether the videos display anomalous capabilities. The study reveals obstacles in the scientific assessment of Pentagon-released UAP footage.

The Scientific Coalition for UAP Studies released a comprehensive analysis synthesizing four prior studies examining unexplained aerial phenomena across the continental United States from 1945 through 1975. The study integrates multiple analytic approaches to infer patterns of non-human intelligence operational presence and resource constraints based on archival data. The research represents an attempt to establish systematic historical patterns of UAP activity over a three-decade period.

Researchers analyzed reported unidentified anomalous phenomena features from 216 select reports spanning 1947–2016, applying two-step clustering algorithms to five characteristics: shape, estimated size, ability to hover, electromagnetic effects, and sound presence. The analysis identified seven distinct clusters with good statistical quality (silhouette value = 0.6), with object shape being the strongest driver of clustering results. This structured approach to UAP feature analysis adds quantitative rigor to historical witness reports.

Avi Loeb proposes an extension to the Loeb Classification Scale designed to assess anomalous objects for signs of extraterrestrial artificial intelligence (SETAI). The extended framework adds a preliminary step to determine whether observational data can support inferences about object control, then applies the existing Loeb Scale, and finally evaluates which control architectures are compatible with the recorded data, using three exclusion tests (T1–T3).

Avi Loeb analyzes declassified infrared sensor videos from the PURSUE collection, identifying that over 8% of analyzed footage may depict birds rather than genuine UAPs, including analysis of wingbeat frequency patterns observed in a 2020 Middle East recording.

Avi Loeb discusses a poll of postdocs at Harvard & Smithsonian's Center for Astrophysics in which 90% prioritized finding extraterrestrial life over solving dark matter, and speculates on a possible connection between the two questions.

Avi Loeb proposes an extension to the Loeb Classification Scale designed to assess anomalous objects for signs of extraterrestrial artificial intelligence (SETAI). The extended framework adds a preliminary step to determine whether observational data can support inferences about object control, then applies the existing Loeb Scale, and finally evaluates which control architectures are compatible with the recorded data, using three exclusion tests (T1–T3).

Avi Loeb participated in a panel discussion at the Virginia Theatre in Champaign on October 16–17, 2026, attended by nearly 1,500 people, examining factual and fictional aspects of alien spacecraft alongside panelists Sarah Edwards, Bill Odenkirk, and Ahmed Best.

Avi Loeb analyzes declassified infrared sensor videos from the PURSUE collection, identifying that over 8% of analyzed footage may depict birds rather than genuine UAPs, including analysis of wingbeat frequency patterns observed in a 2020 Middle East recording.